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Photovoltaic Technologies & Modules: Roadmap and Trends in the PV Industry
The SYNAPSUN editorial team presents an analysis of trends in the production roadmaps for key PV technologies (PERC, TOPCon, HJT, XBC, and Tandem Perovskite) through 2034. Discover our insights and recommendations.
A Rapid Transition to Advanced Technologies
The photovoltaic sector is entering a phase of rapid transformation, driven by the accelerated adoption of TOPCon and HJT technologies starting in 2024. These technologies are set to surpass PERC in market share by 2026 (for TOPCon) and are continuing to grow significantly, redefining market standards.
Key Technologies to Focus on Over the Next 2 to 5 Years
🔹 TOPCon : The Immediate Strategic Choice
With dominant growth projected between 2024 and 2028, TOPCon stands out as the ultimate transitional technology. Its mature production process and increasing market share make it a reliable and competitive option for short-term projects.
🔹 HJT : Growth Expected to Accelerate After 2026
Although slightly more expensive, HJT technology stands out for its high performance, low carbon footprint, and compatibility with future technologies such as tandem cells. It represents an ideal solution for preparing for the future while remaining highly effective today.
🔹 XBC : A Tailored Solution for Premium Projects
Ideal for installations requiring both performance and aesthetics, Back Contact (XBC) technology stands out with its sleek design and ability to eliminate losses associated with visible metal wires.
Emerging Technologies to Consider for the Future
🌟 Silicon-Based Tandem Cells
Emerging from 2028, this technology promises very high energy yields by 2034. For investors with a long-term vision, tracking this evolution is key to anticipating future needs.
💪 Recommendations to Avoid Obsolescence
- To Avoid: Technologies in rapid decline, such as PERC (p-type mono-Si) and BSF (Back Surface Field), which are expected to be largely obsolete by 2026.
- To Prioritize: Products based on TOPCon or HJT technologies, ensuring both performance and long-term viability.
💡 In Summary :
For short-term projects, TOPCon proves to be the most relevant choice due to its maturity and competitive efficiency.
Beyond 2026, consider transitioning to HJT technology to combine innovation and sustainability. Tandem cells should be considered in the next 3 years, depending on the maturity of their industrialization.
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